Lorain, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

381
FXUS61 KCLE 041156
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
756 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly lowered dew points across Northwest Ohio this
afternoon. Also increased PoPs Tuesday afternoon into early
Wednesday morning as persistent, widespread precipitation is
expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening along a surface trough. A few storms
could become strong to severe across portions of North Central
and Northwest Ohio.

2) Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive
across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Some nuisance and/or
minor river flooding is possible.

3) A chilly air mass will return across the region towards the
end of the week with another round of Frost conditions possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak mid-level shortwave will move northeast across the Ohio
Valley ahead of a stronger upper-level trough near the Upper
Great Lakes today. A narrow corridor of higher dew points in
the 50s and mid-level lapse rates of near 7 C/km will accompany
this feature, potentially yielding MLCAPE values in excess of
1000 J/kg by this afternoon and evening.

The latest SPC SWODY1 marginal risk encompassing portions of
North-Central and Northwest Ohio appears reasonable at this time
given the environment in place (modest westerly bulk shear of
around 30 to 35 knots and a favorable DCAPE gradient in place),
though recent guidance has continued to trend convective
initiation further north and northwest. If these trends
continue, much of the area may not see much precipitation until
later tonight.as the cold front approaches. The main hazards
with any stronger storms that form would be isolated damaging
wind gusts and large hail.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A secondary area of low pressure will develop along a slow-
moving cold front as it approaches the Lower Great Lakes region
on Tuesday. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are
expected with the front, especially late Tuesday into Wednesday,
with high probabilities for much of the area to receive at
least 1 inch of rainfall, with a narrow corridor up to 1.5
inches possible. Although not particularly impressive amounts,
the recent wet pattern coupled with a widespread rain could lead
to some nuisance road and/or minor river flooding and will be
something to watch in future forecast iterations.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Another anomalously-cold air mass will enter the region towards
the end of the week, with 850 mb temperatures falling to near or
just below -2C. Though not as cold as the previous cold air
mass over the region, there does exist some potential for
another round of Frost conditions, especially Thursday night
into early Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Clear skies this morning will give way to gradually increasing
sct-bkn VFR clouds through the afternoon with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing generally after 20Z. A capping
inversion is likely until we moisten sufficiently aloft with the
arrival of shortwave energy towards late afternoon to kick off
activity. High resolution models depict scattered showers across
northeast Ohio along a warm front, with better support for
thunderstorms moving into Northwest Ohio and expanding east
across Lake Erie towards CLE/ERI through the evening. We have a
TEMPO for thunderstorms in TOL where confidence is highest in
thunderstorms this evening. Elsewhere, covered the potential for
showers with VCTS or -shra. The moisture axis ahead of the
approaching trough sinks south into the area overnight and bring
additional showers back into favored terminals late in the
period.

Breezy southwesterly winds are expected today after 15Z with
gusts of 22-28 knots. Where wind gusts drop off tonight the
concern for low level wind sheer will return with speeds of
40-50 knots at 2K feet.

Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR are expected Monday
night through Wednesday morning with occasional thunderstorms.
Showers return again Thursday night into Friday with the next
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds of 10-20 knots will continue today on the
western half of Lake Erie with 10-15 knots on the east half of
the lake. Winds will increase slightly to 15-20 knots across
most of the lake tonight ahead of a cold front. The front will
sink south across the lake on Tuesday afternoon with winds
decreasing behind the front. Northerly winds of 5-15 knots will
persist through Thursday before backing to southwesterly again
on Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10